Govt posts rare Rs1.5tr surplus amid flood, border shocks

Claiming a rare Rs1.5 trillion federal fiscal surplus — instead of usual deficits — in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, the government on Monday conceded rising prices of essential commodities due to supply disruptions caused by floods and closure of the Pak-Afghan border. “Flood-related supply disruptions and temporary border closures have put upward pressure on prices of a few essential commodities”, said the Ministry of Finance (MoF) in its Monthly Economic Update & Outlook – October 2025. However, it claimed inflation would remain in the target range of 5-6pc this month, which had already reached 5.6pc in September, against the MoF’s forecast of 3.5-4.5pc made on Sept 30. The MoF said net federal revenues surged by 231.4pc to Rs3.27 trillion in the first two months (July-August) of FY26, compared to Rs986.7 billion in the same period last year. This was driven by a 721.1pc jump in non-tax revenues and a 14.1pc rise in FBR tax collections.