World Bank sees fall in commodity prices

The World Bank projects that global commodity prices will fall 3 per cent in 2024, but the conflict in the Middle East could halt the inflationary decline. “The World Bank commodity price index is expected to fall 4pc in 2024, following a projected decline of nearly 24pc in 2023, the sharpest drop since the pandemic”, noted the latest Commodity Markets Outlook (CMO) released on Thursday. Energy prices are expected to decline by almost 5pc in 2024 and remain relatively stable in 2025. Agriculture prices are expected to decline over the forecast period, while metal prices are set to fall in 2024 but see a 6pc uptick in 2025, the CMO forecast assuming that the conflict in the Middle East will have a limited impact on commodity prices, though geopolitical risks remain high. On the other hand, disappointing global growth presented a downside risk, especially for industrial commodities, the CMO said. Additional trade restrictions and intensification of El Niño could push food prices higher, it warned.