Economy waiting for a push

Some 40 per cent of Pakistanis continue to live below the poverty line with little in sight to hope for better days. The country’s economic growth of 2.5pc recorded in July-September 2023 faltered to just 1pc in the next quarter. Overall growth in the current fiscal year (July 2023-June 2024) may hardly hit the 2pc mark amid persisting political instability, deteriorating security environment, rising energy prices and forex crisis. The World Bank’s latest forecast says Pakistan’s GDP may grow only by 1.8pc-2.5pc in the next fiscal year starting from July. Meanwhile, around 10 million employable people are still jobless, and the number may rise in the coming months even if the recessionary trend seen in industrial output during the first seven months of the fiscal year is reversed. At best, the output of large-scale manufacturing (LSM) for a full year may rise to 1.8pc, according to the World Bank estimates. LSM production rather declined by 0.5pc on a year-on-year basis in seven months.