Economists pilloried for getting forecasts wrong

Economists are taking flak after missing the mark on inflation, failing to anticipate disruptions in global supply chains and forecasting a recession that has not materialised. The Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine and more recently the Middle East conflict have made it tougher for experts to see clearly into their economic crystal balls. European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde joined the chorus of criticism at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last month. “Many economists are actually a tribal clique,” she said, referring to a lack of openness to other scientific disciplines. “They quote each other — men more than women but that’s another story,” the former IMF chief and French finance minister said. “But they don’t go beyond that world because they feel comfortable in that world.” Economists need to get out of their comfort zone of Excel spreadsheets and rigid models, some economists say about their own kind.