No hasty big moves, please

The rupee is on the rise. Cotton output is growing fast. Estimated wheat production is up 12 per cent compared to the last year. Car sales have started picking up. The stock market is doing well. Banks are making big profits. Fuel prices are on hold, although temporarily. Exports of agricultural and food items grew 37pc in July-September. Home remittances in September rose more than 5pc compared to August. The privatisation programme is gathering pace. And big-ticket plans to attract foreign direct investment from China, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are being finalised. Pakistan’s economic prospects look better today than at the start of this fiscal year in July. But problems remain. Tax revenue falls short of meeting the government’s expenses. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the fiscal deficit during this fiscal year ending in June 2024 may jump to 7.6pc of GDP against the target of 6.5pc. The federal government has already announced a 25pc cut in public sector development plans (from Rs800 billion to Rs600bn), and given the poor fiscal conditions, further cuts seem inevitable.