Stories and guesswork

MANY years ago, I was asked the following question: is it true that when a country gets onto an IMF programme it is never able to exit and remains in the ‘clutches’ of the lender forever? The answer was obvious: ‘no, it is not true’. And then came the inevitable follow-up remark: ‘I’ve heard otherwise, somebody was telling me it is true.’ There is no debating or conversing with people like this. Whether or not the statement is true is easily verifiable. All information about all IMF programmes extended to every country is available on their website, and it is not rocket science to look up the information and see for yourself that there are untold examples of countries that have entered Fund programmes, exited them, and rarely returned. There is literally no need to go asking other people or run with something someone told you. This is very common in our economic conversation. Things that are easily verifiable turn into extended debates based on guesswork and deduction, usually based on something someone said and nothing more. In fact, so common is this practice that even at the top levels of our policymaking, critical questions facing the economy are frequently debated on the basis of guesswork, deduction and simply things people have said.