Stability through elections

With a positive growth rate, Pakistan’s economy has somehow managed to skirt a recession during the ongoing fiscal year, even if the GDP growth has fallen flat to less than 0.3 per cent — the slowest increase in domestic output in four years — from 6.1pc a year ago. Yet it also underlines that the economy is suffering long-term effects from the crises caused by the balance of payments vulnerabilities, high indebtedness, weak governance structure, climate change impact and sustained political troubles and will remain trapped in a slow growth mode for many years. The national accounts numbers published by the National Accounts Committee last week show a broad-based decline in the organised segment of the economy and a sharp rise in some undocumented sectors like the livestock sector growing by over 3pc and the small industry by 9pc, engendering doubts about the authenticity of the GDP growth. This has also lent credence to the private estimates of negative growth this year.