Up the creek?

SELDOM before in the past few decades have I heard Pakistanis — friends, students, colleagues, acquaintances and even strangers — sound so despondent and negative about the future of the country as I have over the last few months. The economic situation has been tough for a few years now. But the mood over the last year or so has really turned sour. And continues to be so. The economic situation is bad. Inflation is hurting everyone. The economy is stalling, new jobs are not being created and existing jobs are being destroyed as manufacturing and even the services sector take a hit because of the slowing economy. Much of the discussion on the economy has focused on the issue of whether or not Pakistan will default. The opposition and many others say that it will. Government officials say it won’t, and even threaten people with legal action if they spread ‘rumours’ that it will. But that is not the real issue. Given that default is being discussed, irrespective of whether it happens or not, we are clearly in a bad enough situation where the possibility has become real. The state of the economy, more than any single action or outcome, is what is hurting the people. For most citizens, the question of whether or not Pakistan defaults is a mere technicality. If inflation stays where it is, if the savings rate remains negative, if jobs are not being preserved and new ones not being created, does the issue of default or no default make a difference to the ordinary citizen?