How realistic is the forecast that Pakistan will be world’s sixth-largest economy by 2075?

Will Pakistan be the sixth-largest world economy by 2075? The “Path to 2075”, a paper issued by Goldman Sachs earlier this month, says yes. According to the paper, China will rank first, followed by India, the United States, Indonesia and Nigeria. As a point of reference, the US National Intelligence Council, citing Oxford Economics, predicts that by 2040, India’s economy will rank 3rd, China’s 1st and Pakistan’s 23rd. Using a popular macroeconomic model, the Goldman Sachs paper predicts the economic outlook for 104 countries. It updates an analysis that was published in 2003 which was limited to the BRICS (Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa) economies and a subsequent study that expanded it to 70 countries. Being the sixth-largest economy in the world would represent a massive change of fortunes for Pakistan, which has been struggling with economic growth for the past several decades. But how realistic is this forecast?